One glaring failure on early Great Britain is it's apparent inability to pick up plate numbers - Great Britain 58 used with common plate numbers has a CV of $19 - with plate 9 it's $750. There is no Scott number difference between the two. It also fails to recognize most of the other factors that make one stamp worth $2 (few short perfs, heavy cancel, small tear) and another "identical" stamp worth $100 (VF centering, full CDS, great color).....
If all buyers were knowledgeable about true value it wouldn't be a problem - a picture is worth 1000 words. But they are not, and I think this will just lead to an unwarranted "death spiral" of pricing. You can check it out yourself since Ebay still provides actual sales prices and the actual listing of sold items. . In the few that I checked out the actual sales prices on Ebay were higher than the Hipvalue, some significantly so (a factor of many times higher)....
Think the idea perhaps has merit but it's very important to make it apples to apples and it does not appear to be there yet...
Sometimes I think all the stamps being sold are really quite a bit below value. I get a real pain (you know where) when I see a modern unused forever US stamp that someone paid 47 cents for and the buyer is selling it for a dollar with free shipping. They ought to be kicked in the head. 47 cents to the Postal service, 47 cents to mail it and 30 cents to PayPal to get your dollar. Who on earth thinks this makes sense. (Even with discount postage available). It is just nuts. We already have a race to the bottom. People who do not like HipValue should not use it. Personally I like it - even when I get mad at another seller for pricing things in the basement.
A few comments above Carol Brooks spoke of an Ebay price realized being higher than Hipvalue. As much as I love this site ( and I go back to 2005) Feebay still has more potential viewers and buyers and for many things Feebay is still the place to list things. At one point before the SG debacle my sales at Bidstart were higher than at Feebay but it will take some time to get more buyers back to this site. I think the "race to the bottom" is not a major worry. The cheapskates won't pay Mark the $5 a month that he wants for Hipvalue. Since I started dealing in the early 60's some one has always been racing to the bottom - when they get there and end up with nothing to sell because they can not afford to replace what they sold they disappear.
I concur with Dennis. I don't see HipValue as facilitating any race to the bottom. Anyone playing that game doesn't need HipValue, which at any rate, is giving a more or less average value, not the lowest value. They only need to sort the search results, lowest price first, and undercut the first listing. Really, I think there is much ado about nothing, regarding HipValue. Nobody, least of all Mark, is pushing it as the be all and end all for valuing or pricing stamps. It is simply another tool at your disposal. If you don't like it, don't subscribe to it.
Dennis & Ted, I hope you're right. ... Some of my concern comes from a comment early on upstream in this thread which said that, since half the listings that that writer looked at were above the HipValue figure, why should he bother to look at those?
Of course, the HipValue being some kind of hybrid of average or median, it makes sense definitionally that about half of the listings would be higher than that price, but if buyers don't bother to look at those listings above the HipValue, then it seems to me that there could be compression on those prices in the upper half.
Because, if sellers drop their selling prices to get closer to the HipValue figure, then it seems like the HipValue figure could fall, too, and so many of those listings are once again higher than HipValue. A few iterations of this, and you're having prices falling to an even smaller percentage of catalog than they already are.
I understand what you are saying, Phil. I believe, though, that the risk of that happening is no greater than what we face right now, without HipValue. Many many stamps have dozens, sometimes hundreds, of active listings, and when a dealer puts one up for sale, it is a simple matter to scroll through the listings and get a feel for a typical price, or, at least, a certain price range within which most of the prices fall. Yet, you will still find many of those listings priced at multiples of the "typical" price. Why haven't those dealers joined the race to the bottom? I don't see any reason to think that HipValue should suddenly compel these dealers to lower their prices.
As far as higher priced listings being ignored, I don't believe HipValue has any bearing on that, either. Even the most novice stamp collector realizes (I hope) that condition can vary widely with stamps, and, commensurate with that, the values (or prices). I will usually look at the high-priced listings, if only out of curiosity to see why the dealer seems to think it is worth so much.
Now that KHJ no longer graces our company, I may have taken over the mantle as the site cheapskate. I rarely purchase anything above a certain, low, percentage of Scott CV. Yet, I have, on occasion, paid a hefty multiple of that percentage when the condition of the stamp warranted the higher price.
There will always be weekend warriors, or hobbyist sellers, who will put up stuff at giveaway prices, just because they don't need to make a living at it, and simply want to get some cash for items they no longer want. These are the sellers, I believe, that perpetuate the race to the bottom, and HipValue will have no bearing on their prices because, 1) they don't care about the "average" value; they simply find the lowest listed price and meet or beat it; and, 2) as Dennis presumes, they are not the ones who will be subscribing to the service.
I agree with Wayne's statement above ("Sometimes I think all the stamps being sold are really quite a bit below value. "). But I believe that is simply the state of the stamp market today. There are fewer and fewer collectors each year (just an assumption of mine; no empirical proof to cite) chasing an ever-increasing supply of stamps. There is a critical mass (so to speak) of demand required to support values/prices. Most of the stamp collecting areas have lost that critical mass. It is incumbent on the dealer to study the current market trends and determine where the strength lies.
For many years, collectors had only the major catalogs to guide them on stamp values. The closest thing we had to a HipValue was Linn's Trends, published in Linn's Stamp News. That did not prevent the wholesale collapse of stamp prices. It was "the market" that determined prices should be lower. And, now, just as back then, the market is refusing to pay even the deflated prices of a few years ago.
Dave Bennett has a signature line with which he has responded to sellers who have complained about one thing or another, "Adapt and thrive." If the market prices for the items you are selling are becoming too low to make it worth your while to list them, find a market niche that is under-served, with a stronger foundation under its values (such areas do exist), and start listing those items.
In the end, HipValue is just another piece of data which can be utilized by a buyer or seller. It simply conveys a bit of information which any given person may or may not find useful. If it is not to your liking, ignore it. But, don't shoot the messenger because you don't like the message.
I was with you until the last two paragraphs, where I felt like I was being chided for even asking the question about the implications of this tool.
And I think my posts were temperate enough not to warrant the "don't shoot the messenger" phrase.
I was never particularly strong in Economics, but I had several graduate-level classes in Econ in my Master's program (including pricing theory), so I was trying to think out loud through the potential implications of this tool being made available on the site.
Aww.Ted,, (I am teasing here)---and here I was hoping that someone would buy my high dollar stuff--'so I won't have to sell my pocket watch chain to buy the wife some hair brushes' and the to find out she cut her hair???????? Good post there Ted.
One thing that should be pointed out in the "collapse" of market values is the current strength of the US $ compared to just about any other major currency that I can think of. My sales via all methods of selling have declined in non US markets. In time the US$ will fall, the Euro, pound, $C, $Aus etc will rise and stamps will flow again to those markets.
Ted, great points you make. Market value is what it is and we have to live with but sellers should not exacerbate the race to the lowest price. There will always be a niche for a seller if he has good material (although I do list some junk from time to time). Since most sellers began as collectors I find it painful to throw away an old stamp even though it is junk. Someday soon (that means in the current millenium) I am going to put up a couple of lots of real junk in hopes not so much that they sell but to justify throwing stuff away. When I acquire an old album with some junk stamps in it (and there is almost always some) I think someone else felt that stamp was worth keeping. Then I wonder, does someone else want this to fill a space temporarily?
Phil, I sincerely apologize for my a-bit-over-the-top summation. I don't mean to downplay anybody's concerns. I appreciate everyone's thoughts on this feature.
Dave, I'm a night shifter, and the work situation being what it is right now (we are running a very limited operation, but still need 24-hour manning), I had a little too much time on my hands, and blew it all on this one post. LOL
To add another spin to this thread. Lets not forget the Professional Retailer, in your place of residence. They have to sell to make a living, so their retail is probably closer to the mark than any. A catalog value being Stanley Gibbons, Scott or whoever probably does not come into their equation, after all they DO have to sell, do they not. Here in Australia I always check this site, no auctions, just straight sales. Sale price too high results in no sale, so I assume they are competitive in my Country. http://stampsaustralia.com.au/ Obviously I try to sell/retail at around half their retail, if I can. Auction, well that is another basket of fish altogether, Sam
In my opinion this option is to new to evaluate with any accuracy. This is a data driven feature and right now with very little data collected it's almost impossible to form an accurate value on any one given item. I believe that after several months of "Sold" values collected a more precise dollar amount can be reached. I also see this feature as a great tool for sellers as how to price there items. Ross https://www.hipstamp.com/store/ross-stamps
John - Just to clarify the HipValue is not a direct average - so the examples you've noted are not being calculated incorrectly. The HipValue is intended to represent the current online selling price of a specific Country / Catalog Number in a given (gum) condition and stamp format.
The algorithm behind a HipValue takes make different factors into account, including when a sale took place, trends within the specific Country / Catalog Number; as well as removing outliers and incorrectly identified items.
There's a note displayed when you click through to any sales results for a HipValue which states (for example):
The HipValue for Canada #1653a Mint (NH) is $1.25 based on approximately 1 sales. Note: For reference, additional listings may be shown below, including lots with multiple items, and/or flagged as Cataloged incorrectly - which were not included in the HipValue calculation; and therefore the number of listings may differ from the number of HipValue sales.
So the HipValue will generally not be exactly the same as if you simply added up all of the items you see and ran an average. When viewing search results we also include additional related items not necessarily used in the HipValue calculation. For example, you can review when the item was included in a listing with other items (not just by itself) which will not have been used to calculate the HipValue, etc.
We have tried a few different attempts at the wording to make this clear - but perhaps there's still more work to do with regards to the wording regarding this.
Rod - Yes different currencies on sales are taken into account, but all HipValues are currently displayed in USD.
Ross - All sales from bidStart have been integrated into HipValues, so there's over 10 years of data, and well over 5 million sales being taken into account currently.
The example of Great Britain Scott 58 also needs to take into consideration that there are different plates for that stamp. Plate 9 Unused has a scv of $9,000. Is HipValue taking the plate number consideration?
Good question Rod, being in Australia it's all Stanley Gibbons, I don't even know anyone with a Scott Catalog. I never put a Cat. number in sales or auctions anyway, and thats Ebay and all the rest. A simple search on HipStamp(any site) of year and Country will give me everything current. For example in the search area at the top of the HipStamp home page put in - 2015 australia - All Gatagories There are 143 CURRENT listings. First 2 words of (mine/yours/everyone) every listing, selling or auction, should be year and Country, works for me. Sam
Value means nothing as far as Catalog value, SG or Scott or any of the multitude like them out there. If one wants an item, the price is irrelevant, if one wants it, like me I buy it, I don't give a damn what SG or Scott or HipStamp say it's value is. If I want it I buy it. WHY??????, an item is only worth what an individual is prepared to pay for it. Whether it's a car, fishing Rod, Fridge/Freezer or whatever. NOTHING IS WORTH MORE THAN AN INDIVIDUAL IS PREPARED TO PAY FOR IT - end of story Sam
Mark, "Ross - All sales from bidStart have been integrated into HipValues, so there's over 10 years of data, and well over 5 million sales being taken into account currently. " I was unaware that you had brought the sales data from BS/SW. Thanks for providing the info. I'm still in a wait and see mode. Ross https://www.hipstamp.com/store/ross-stamps
So far, it seems only Dennis has touched upon my thoughts regarding Hipvalue; namely modern buyers inclination to "get a deal/discount". We see it operative in most facets of commerce and utilized by many retailers listing "originally priced" or "comparable value" or such and then the "bargain" price. As stamp people we are aware of Scotts prices being non-reflective of most of our dealings and expect to negotiate at a percentage of it; sometimes a small fraction of it. That said, that mentality can unconsciously operate also with Hipvalue, particularly at auction. If we see in the listing the average sells for X, then one will want/expect it for less. Yes, being presently mindful of the distinction between the two values may curb that tendency, but I suggest not fully- at least for me it doesn't, and admittedly my programed human nature whispers "the bargain" message to me in spite of Hipvalue's message. Perhaps showing Scotts value then the Hipvalue in a listing, I might be reminded of the difference.
Comments
If all buyers were knowledgeable about true value it wouldn't be a problem - a picture is worth 1000 words. But they are not, and I think this will just lead to an unwarranted "death spiral" of pricing. You can check it out yourself since Ebay still provides actual sales prices and the actual listing of sold items. . In the few that I checked out the actual sales prices on Ebay were higher than the Hipvalue, some significantly so (a factor of many times higher)....
Think the idea perhaps has merit but it's very important to make it apples to apples and it does not appear to be there yet...
Really, I think there is much ado about nothing, regarding HipValue. Nobody, least of all Mark, is pushing it as the be all and end all for valuing or pricing stamps. It is simply another tool at your disposal. If you don't like it, don't subscribe to it.
Of course, the HipValue being some kind of hybrid of average or median, it makes sense definitionally that about half of the listings would be higher than that price, but if buyers don't bother to look at those listings above the HipValue, then it seems to me that there could be compression on those prices in the upper half.
Because, if sellers drop their selling prices to get closer to the HipValue figure, then it seems like the HipValue figure could fall, too, and so many of those listings are once again higher than HipValue. A few iterations of this, and you're having prices falling to an even smaller percentage of catalog than they already are.
[edited slightly for clarity, several times]
As far as higher priced listings being ignored, I don't believe HipValue has any bearing on that, either. Even the most novice stamp collector realizes (I hope) that condition can vary widely with stamps, and, commensurate with that, the values (or prices). I will usually look at the high-priced listings, if only out of curiosity to see why the dealer seems to think it is worth so much.
Now that KHJ no longer graces our company, I may have taken over the mantle as the site cheapskate. I rarely purchase anything above a certain, low, percentage of Scott CV. Yet, I have, on occasion, paid a hefty multiple of that percentage when the condition of the stamp warranted the higher price.
There will always be weekend warriors, or hobbyist sellers, who will put up stuff at giveaway prices, just because they don't need to make a living at it, and simply want to get some cash for items they no longer want. These are the sellers, I believe, that perpetuate the race to the bottom, and HipValue will have no bearing on their prices because, 1) they don't care about the "average" value; they simply find the lowest listed price and meet or beat it; and, 2) as Dennis presumes, they are not the ones who will be subscribing to the service.
I agree with Wayne's statement above ("Sometimes I think all the stamps being sold are really quite a bit below value. "). But I believe that is simply the state of the stamp market today. There are fewer and fewer collectors each year (just an assumption of mine; no empirical proof to cite) chasing an ever-increasing supply of stamps. There is a critical mass (so to speak) of demand required to support values/prices. Most of the stamp collecting areas have lost that critical mass. It is incumbent on the dealer to study the current market trends and determine where the strength lies.
For many years, collectors had only the major catalogs to guide them on stamp values. The closest thing we had to a HipValue was Linn's Trends, published in Linn's Stamp News. That did not prevent the wholesale collapse of stamp prices. It was "the market" that determined prices should be lower. And, now, just as back then, the market is refusing to pay even the deflated prices of a few years ago.
Dave Bennett has a signature line with which he has responded to sellers who have complained about one thing or another, "Adapt and thrive." If the market prices for the items you are selling are becoming too low to make it worth your while to list them, find a market niche that is under-served, with a stronger foundation under its values (such areas do exist), and start listing those items.
In the end, HipValue is just another piece of data which can be utilized by a buyer or seller. It simply conveys a bit of information which any given person may or may not find useful. If it is not to your liking, ignore it. But, don't shoot the messenger because you don't like the message.
Ted
I was with you until the last two paragraphs, where I felt like I was being chided for even asking the question about the implications of this tool.
And I think my posts were temperate enough not to warrant the "don't shoot the messenger" phrase.
I was never particularly strong in Economics, but I had several graduate-level classes in Econ in my Master's program (including pricing theory), so I was trying to think out loud through the potential implications of this tool being made available on the site.
I don't know if the timestamp reflects Eastern time, your Central zone or mine . . . but whatever the hour, your insights were excellent!
Good post there Ted.
Ted, great points you make. Market value is what it is and we have to live with but sellers should not exacerbate the race to the lowest price. There will always be a niche for a seller if he has good material (although I do list some junk from time to time). Since most sellers began as collectors I find it painful to throw away an old stamp even though it is junk. Someday soon (that means in the current millenium) I am going to put up a couple of lots of real junk in hopes not so much that they sell but to justify throwing stuff away. When I acquire an old album with some junk stamps in it (and there is almost always some) I think someone else felt that stamp was worth keeping. Then I wonder, does someone else want this to fill a space temporarily?
https://www.hipstamp.com/browse/hip-values/?reference_id=10621587&item_specifics_04_condition=mint-nh-&item_specifics_05_stamp_format=single&volume_name=Canada&issue_number=1668a
Dave, I'm a night shifter, and the work situation being what it is right now (we are running a very limited operation, but still need 24-hour manning), I had a little too much time on my hands, and blew it all on this one post. LOL
Cheers, everybody!
Lets not forget the Professional Retailer, in your place of residence.
They have to sell to make a living, so their retail is probably closer to the mark than any.
A catalog value being Stanley Gibbons, Scott or whoever probably does not come into their equation, after all they DO have to sell, do they not.
Here in Australia I always check this site, no auctions, just straight sales.
Sale price too high results in no sale, so I assume they are competitive in my Country.
http://stampsaustralia.com.au/
Obviously I try to sell/retail at around half their retail, if I can.
Auction, well that is another basket of fish altogether,
Sam
Ross
https://www.hipstamp.com/store/ross-stamps
The algorithm behind a HipValue takes make different factors into account, including when a sale took place, trends within the specific Country / Catalog Number; as well as removing outliers and incorrectly identified items.
There's a note displayed when you click through to any sales results for a HipValue which states (for example):
The HipValue for Canada #1653a Mint (NH) is $1.25 based on approximately 1 sales.
Note: For reference, additional listings may be shown below, including lots with multiple items, and/or flagged as Cataloged incorrectly - which were not included in the HipValue calculation; and therefore the number of listings may differ from the number of HipValue sales.
So the HipValue will generally not be exactly the same as if you simply added up all of the items you see and ran an average. When viewing search results we also include additional related items not necessarily used in the HipValue calculation. For example, you can review when the item was included in a listing with other items (not just by itself) which will not have been used to calculate the HipValue, etc.
We have tried a few different attempts at the wording to make this clear - but perhaps there's still more work to do with regards to the wording regarding this.
Rod - Yes different currencies on sales are taken into account, but all HipValues are currently displayed in USD.
Ross - All sales from bidStart have been integrated into HipValues, so there's over 10 years of data, and well over 5 million sales being taken into account currently.
Sam
I see in the three examples I listed, they all have been updated. They all look better and are closer to the true value of the stamps.
Have A Great Day
I never put a Cat. number in sales or auctions anyway, and thats Ebay and all the rest.
A simple search on HipStamp(any site) of year and Country will give me everything current.
For example in the search area at the top of the HipStamp home page put in - 2015 australia - All Gatagories
There are 143 CURRENT listings.
First 2 words of (mine/yours/everyone) every listing, selling or auction, should be year and Country, works for me.
Sam
If one wants an item, the price is irrelevant, if one wants it, like me I buy it, I don't give a damn what SG or Scott or HipStamp say it's value is. If I want it I buy it.
WHY??????, an item is only worth what an individual is prepared to pay for it.
Whether it's a car, fishing Rod, Fridge/Freezer or whatever.
NOTHING IS WORTH MORE THAN AN INDIVIDUAL IS PREPARED TO PAY FOR IT - end of story
Sam
"Ross - All sales from bidStart have been integrated into HipValues, so there's over 10 years of data, and well over 5 million sales being taken into account currently. "
I was unaware that you had brought the sales data from BS/SW. Thanks for providing the info. I'm still in a wait and see mode.
Ross
https://www.hipstamp.com/store/ross-stamps